When the aggregate looks okay, but your spidey senses are tingling, the answer may be in the data that rises or falls first. It used to be that economists looked at packaging sales as a leading indicator of manufacturing 6 months out. We all looked at US Labor Department data on unemployment rates and new job hires until the government shut down that function so now we look at private data mostly from payroll services.
What data you look at and how you interpret it can greatly affect your decision making in this volatile economy.
According to the data analyzed by the NY Times*, there is fragility in 2 areas: The US economy appears to be propped up by the spending of the top 10%. This creates a fragility tied to the stock market. If that falls, spending by high earners will be effected. It is extremely volatile right now as the tariff situation keeps fluctuating.
The second area is the labor market. If the labor market weakens further, lower-income households will be even more stressed financially. They have already tightened spending down to the basics. Instead of name brands, you see the market brand of cereal being purchased. Is it just luck that the price of gas has dropped for now?
What does that mean for you? Focus on the basics of your business. Use this time to improve your processes so that you can be faster at everything you do. Could AI analysis of data you have show trends you hadn’t noticed? It appears that most companies have run through the inventory purchased before the tariff increased. So margins have been squeezed to the point that everyone is raising prices. Get one in if you can.
Many predicted that the effect of the tariffs would hit in the Fall. Well, it is now Fall. I guess we keep our fingers crossed, and fasten our seat belts.
If you don’t think Vistage peer groups get value at every meeting-from the speakers, the conversations and the input from your peers, don’t click here.
- “Wealthy Americans are Spending. People with less are struggling.”- NYTimes Oct. 19,2025