This has been a week of unbelievable, sad, scary and very public miscalculations. The Ukrainians bought Putin’s claim that he wouldn’t invade. Big miscalculation.  Putin miscalculated the resolve of the Ukrainian people and the unity and the resolve of NATO. The consequences will be death, destruction and a reordering of the whole world order. At best.

Hubris, ego, listening to your own echo chamber – all of these lead to miscalculation. We see them playing out writ large. How many residents of Kyiv wished they would have planned a vacation to Italy this week, or filled up their gas tank and transferred some money to a bank in Poland. Or bought and learned how to fire a weapon. There are predicted to be 4 million refugees from a country of 42 million people. Add them to the 20 million refugees in the world today. Most of those come from internal civil wars, not attacks from a nuclear powered neighbor. Someone please explain why the Russians wanted to secure the site of the Chernobyl disaster as one of their first acts.

So, yes, it is crazy. Let me ask you, what would you have done if you lived in the Ukraine? Would you have been prepared to leave everything you had and go to another country? Would you at least have filed your gas tank a few days ago and packed some bags? Many miscalculations come from inertia – but when the stakes are high and possible consequences seriously disruptive a Plan B should be in place.

What are the miscalculations you are making that you could fix now? Are your finances in order? If you had to leave the country suddenly, do you have an up to date passport? If we had an earthquake, fire or hurricane would you be ready?  Have you signed your will, trusts, and health care power of attorney in case you have a health crisis?

If we learn nothing from the miscalculations we have seen on such a grand scale, we could at least prepare in our own small way around things we can control. Pick the 2-3 most important for you and address them this week. You will feel a lot better having taken control of something, anything.

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