For the last month, I have been repeatedly asked my guess on the economy in 2023. Will we go into recession? Should the business leaders I coach go all out, stay on course or pull back severely? It is tricky to forecast 2023. Depending on the industry, and the company any of the above could be correct. >
What an interesting week! Twitter falling apart, tech companies laying off, inflation stabilizing but high, stock market going up, mid-term elections going calmly – so much happening. Add to that the continuing Russian defeats, meeting of global leaders over climate change and Xi and Biden about to meet in Indonesia, Hard to know the best way of managing amidst the uncertainty. >
When I saw the big trucks around the corner I got really excited. Oh boy, street paving. I know how geeky that sounds, But, I live in an old neighborhood, where the water pipes are 75 years old and break in the middle of the night. The transformer blew at the corner and it took 5 days of power outage in 100 degree heat before there was a temporary fix. The concrete streets have been overlaid with asphalt, and they fall apart every 4 years. >
How ironic that this Labor Day all employers can talk about is labor shortages. Promising talent is being picked off with unsolicited offers for way more than their current salaries, and entry level workers cannot be found. Add to that, the national employment level is 6.1 million lower than before COVID. Nationally, we have 10 million open jobs with 8.6 million unemployed. This ain’t going to be easy to fix. >
As we come out of the economic destruction of the pandemic, we struggle with scarcity in every part of the economy. Scarcity of raw materials, scarcity of transport, scarcity of components and scarcity of workers.
Think this isn’t serious? >
Has anyone studied the actual uses of the Payroll Protection Plan (PPP) loans/forgiveness?
Because the pandemic totally devastated approximately 20% of the economy in sectors like travel, events, hotels and dining, it is hard to imagine how these industries have survived, or how the PPP money could have helped them for long. If they are still surviving, they are maybe 1/3 the size they had been before the pandemic. For them it has been tragic. Hopefully, they will come back as the economy reopens. >
The economists are beginning to say it out loud: the signs are gathering for a recession by the end of 2019. Yes, it depends on the sector, but it is likely you are not immune. Are you recession ready? >
This week the federal reserve raised interest rates again making them the highest they have been since 2008. The President just directed the US trade representative to level tariffs on about $50 billion worth of Chinese imports; this is in addition to the steel and aluminum tariffs recently imposed. If you use steel in manufacturing, the prices have already gone up.
Are you raising prices, too? >
Startling demographic changes as to where people live by age and education level tell us a story about our country that explains recent economic and political trends. >
I was just enjoying a little light reading: on a sunny afternoon: “The Changing Economics and Demographics of Young Adulthood: 1975–2016.” from the US Census Office. Who taught Vistage Chairs how fun this was? >